Predict Future Outcomes in Our Event Prediction Market

Neo · June 20, 2009, 6:08am

Folks love to predict the future, so we have enabled predicting the future for members. So, please enjoy placing your Forum Bits predicting future outcomes in our new Event Prediction Market.

Current events you can predict include science, technology, M&A and other global events:

Oracle Acquires TIBCO Software on/before 15 May 2011.
Oracle Stops MySQL Open Source Development on/before 31 Dec 2010.
Higgs Boson Particle to be observed at the CERN LHC on/before 31 Dec 2009.
Space Shuttle Endeavour, mission STS-127, will launch on/before the July 11 launch window.
Google search market share to be 80.0% or more for on/before 31 Dec 2009.
Virgin Galactic offers sub-orbital space flights to the general public on/before 30 November 2009
A magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake to occur anywhere on/before 31 Dec 2009. )
WHO publishes cummulative total of 80,000 influenza A (H1N1) cases on/before June 30, 2009.

Let us know if you have any other events you would like to see in the event marketplace!

The event prediction market works as a pool, so all the Bits placed goes into a prediction market which is divided among the winners. If an event outcome "A" has 15000 Bits on it, and outcome "B" has 25000 Bits on it there are 40000 Bits in the market. If your predicted outcome "A" wins, and you had put the entire 15000 in, you would win all 40000 Bits. If you had placed 5000 Bits of the 15000 you would get back 5000 / 15000 x 40000, or a 3rd of the market because you had placed a 3rd of the total Bits on the winning prediction.

Payout on the event is always 100% of the total market, divided among the winners based on the portion they placed on the event; so there are no fixed odds or odds entered. So if no one bets on the losing outcome, your return is exactly what you put in. Likewise, if a forum member someone places a single Bit (1) on the winning outcome, and other forum members had put a total of 5000 Bits on the losing outcome, betting the 1 Bit gives you a 5001 Bit return. Enjoy predicting the future!

Predict!