Hi. I'm trying to get information about the rates at which viruses and malware infect computers.
Let's say that Mr. Dastardly Developer discovers an exploitable flaw, writes a virus to take advantage of it, and releases the virus. Assuming that a large-scale attack method is chosen (Facebook, for example), it's reasonable to suppose that there would be an initial rise from zero infected computers to some substantial number as the virus propagates; then as (1) the infection level approaches population-wide and (2) awareness and countermeasures are applied, the rate of infection would start to decline, as would the total number of infected computers. Eventually, it seems that the infection count would get to some comparatively low number and begin a very long-term, very slow decline to virtually nothing; after all, some computers are probably only "fixed" by being completely retired by oblivious owners that go any buy another computer and fail to properly maintain that one, too.
So, any suggestions on where one might get information about these patterns? How rapid is the initial uptake? When does the rate of infection plateau? When does it decline? Any other useful metrics?
Many thanks in advance.